A groundbreaking study led by the University of Leeds reveals a dramatic decline in Caspian Sea water levels due to rising global temperatures. As the world’s largest enclosed inland water body, the Caspian Sea is experiencing unprecedented evaporation, surpassing its natural inflow. This environmental shift could lead to a drop of 5 to 10 meters by 2100—even if global warming is limited to under 2°C. In worst-case scenarios, levels could plunge by up to 21 meters, triggering severe consequences for biodiversity, human infrastructure, and regional economies.
Caspian Sea Climate Impact: Key Findings from New Research
Published in Communications Earth & Environment, the study warns that 112,000 km² of seabed—larger than Iceland—could be exposed, endangering both marine life and human settlements. The shallow waters, which support critical ecosystems, are most at risk.
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Endangered Caspian Seal and Marine Biodiversity at Risk
The Caspian Sea supports unique wildlife, including:
- The endangered Caspian seal, facing up to 81% habitat loss due to ice melt and shrinking coastlines.
- Six species of sturgeon, now critically endangered, may lose access to key spawning rivers.
- Hundreds of endemic fish and invertebrate species, threatened by habitat degradation.
- Migratory birds relying on coastal lagoons and reed beds, now vulnerable due to receding waterlines.
Even in optimistic climate scenarios, four of ten unique Caspian ecosystems may vanish. Existing marine protected areas (MPAs) could shrink by up to 94%, leaving species exposed to unchecked exploitation.
Human Impact: Coastal Communities and Key Industries in Danger
Over 15 million people living across Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan depend on the Caspian Sea for:
- Fishing, now at risk as fish populations dwindle.
- Shipping and trade, likely to suffer as major ports such as Baku, Anzali, and Aktau become inaccessible, with shoreline retreats of up to 115 km.
- Oil production in fields like Kashagan and Filanovsky, which could become landlocked and economically unviable.
The shrinking Caspian Sea is also expected to release toxic dust from the exposed seabed—similar to the Aral Sea disaster—causing major public health concerns across Central Asia.
Climate, Water Security, and Agriculture Under Threat
- Desalination plants, particularly in Aktau, are already facing water shortages.
- Agriculture may decline due to reduced rainfall and drier conditions, linked to the sea’s diminished climate-regulating ability.
This escalating water crisis could lead to socioeconomic instability, reduced freshwater access, and increased pressure on already vulnerable cold desert and steppe ecosystems.
Policy Recommendations: Urgent Action Needed to Prevent Disaster
The researchers propose a multifaceted strategy to address the crisis:
- Dynamic conservation planning with flexible marine protected areas.
- Investments in biodiversity monitoring and ecosystem restoration.
- Support for coastal communities to diversify their economies.
- International cooperation to protect the sea and regulate climate impacts.
- Proactive infrastructure planning to minimize conflict between conservation and development.
- Global reduction in greenhouse gas emissions to slow the sea’s decline.
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Expert Insights: Call for Immediate Global and Regional Collaboration
Dr. Simon Goodman, School of Biology, University of Leeds:
“Some Caspian Sea level decline appears unavoidable. But with proper planning, we can protect biodiversity and human interests before it’s too late.”
Dr. Elchin Mamedov, Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources, Azerbaijan:
“This study highlights the urgent need for enhanced regional and global cooperation to address climate risks in the Caspian region.”
Rebecca Court, co-author and Ph.D. researcher:
“Our goal is to provide tools for policymakers to anticipate and mitigate the environmental and human impacts of this unfolding crisis.”
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🔗 Citation: Court R. et al. (2025). Rapid decline of Caspian Sea level threatens ecosystem integrity, biodiversity protection, and human infrastructure. Communications Earth & Environment. DOI: 10.1038/s43247-025-02212-5