Introduction
Despite legal obligations under the European Union’s Common Fisheries Policy (CFP), the majority of fish stocks in northern European waters are either overfished, declining, or have collapsed entirely. A staggering 70% of targeted commercial fish stocks are no longer sustainable. So, what’s going wrong?
Recent research by GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel and Kiel University, published in Science, reveals systemic flaws in how the EU manages its fisheries—especially in the Western Baltic Sea.
What the EU Law Says About Sustainable Fishing
The EU is committed to sustainable fisheries, which means that fish can only be harvested at rates that allow populations to naturally replenish. This aligns with international law under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
The process involves:
- Scientific advice from the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES)
- Annual quota proposals by the European Commission
- Final decisions by the Council of EU Fisheries Ministers
However, in practice, this system often results in higher-than-sustainable catch limits, undermining the very goals it was meant to achieve.
The Western Baltic Sea: A Case Study in Overfishing
The Western Baltic Sea, a relatively simple marine ecosystem, offers a clear window into the failures of current EU fisheries policy. The region is home to:
- Cod
- Herring
- Plaice
- Flounder
- Dab
Over the years, cod and herring stocks have plummeted due to overfishing, while flatfish species like plaice and dab—less commercially targeted—have remained stable or even increased.
Key Statistic:
In 2022, less than 10% of potential sustainable fish stocks were actually caught.
Small-scale coastal fishers, who rely heavily on these stocks, are now facing economic hardship—often due to misguided lobbying efforts for unsustainable fishing quotas.
“Phantom Recoveries” and Flawed Scientific Advice
While ICES is tasked with ensuring sustainable catch levels, its stock assessments have repeatedly overestimated fish populations, resulting in advice that falsely suggested stock recoveries.
Lead researcher Dr. Rainer Froese describes this as “phantom recoveries“—predicted rebounds in fish populations that never actually occurred.
The Overfishing Ratchet: A System Designed to Fail?
Researchers highlight a critical feedback loop they call the “overfishing ratchet.” Here’s how it works:
- ICES gives overly optimistic stock assessments.
- The European Commission proposes higher catch quotas.
- EU Fisheries Ministers approve or further increase them.
The result? Legally approved quotas exceed what fish populations can sustain—and sometimes even what’s physically available. Ironically, fishers often end up catching less than their quota, as it becomes economically unfeasible to chase the last remaining fish.
A Call for Independent, Ecosystem-Based Fisheries Management
Although the CFP set a 2020 deadline to end overfishing, the goal was missed. The researchers urge the creation of a politically independent authority tasked with:
- Providing robust, science-based catch limits
- Ensuring ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM)
- Promoting long-term sustainability and profitability
This new body would function similarly to a central bank, ensuring transparency, independence, and accountability in managing Europe’s marine resources.
Final Thoughts: Time for Action
For the European Union to lead by example in global sustainable fisheries, it must fix its failing fisheries management system. This includes enforcing existing laws, listening to scientific advice, and prioritizing long-term ecological and economic health over short-term political gains.
As Dr. Froese concludes:
“Sound scientific advice can lead to highly profitable fisheries from large fish stocks in healthy European seas—within just a few years.”
References
- Froese, R. et al. (2025). Systemic failure of European fisheries management. Science. DOI: 10.1126/science.adv4341
- Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres