Griffith University researchers have issued a stark warning: by the year 2100, nearly one-third of Australia’s coastal terrestrial aquaculture could be at serious risk due to rising sea levels, with Queensland’s aquaculture industry facing the greatest threat.
Over 43% of Queensland’s Aquaculture at Risk
The study, published in Aquaculture Science and Management, reveals that over 43% of Queensland’s existing aquaculture zones—predominantly located along the coast—are projected to be affected by sea level rise by the end of the century.
Under high-emission climate scenarios, Queensland could see a 0.8-meter sea level rise, putting major aquaculture operations, especially prawn and barramundi farms, in danger of inundation.
Massive Economic Losses for Australia’s Seafood Industry
The research forecasts substantial economic losses:
- Prawn farming: AUD$36.9 to AUD$127.6 million annually
- Barramundi farming: AUD$12.6 to AUD$22.6 million annually
These losses would have a direct impact on seafood supply chains, job security, and food security in the region.
Prawn Farms Most Vulnerable to Sea Level Rise
Of the total projected inundation:
- 98% of prawn aquaculture sites are expected to be impacted
- Around 50% of total prawn production could be disrupted
This poses a significant risk to one of Queensland’s most lucrative and high-demand aquaculture sectors.
Key Impacted Areas Identified Across Queensland
Using advanced satellite data and government datasets, the research team mapped out 647.14 km² of aquaculture zones across 341 lots and 275 operational farms.
Top Local Government Areas (LGAs) at risk:
- Cassowary Coast Regional: 3.89 km² affected (71%)
- Whitsunday Regional: 3.63 km² (39%)
- Gold Coast Regional: 3.04 km² (57%)
- Mackay Regional: 2.42 km² (100%)
Highest-risk prawn farming zones:
- Gold Coast City: 1.12 km² (92%)
- Burdekin Shire: 0.59 km² (49%)
- Isaac Regional: 0.36 km² (42%)
- Cassowary Coast: 0.30 km² (20%)
- Mackay Regional: 0.073 km² (100%)
Barramundi farming exposure:
- Whitsunday Regional: 0.43 km² (73%)
- Douglas Shire: 0.23 km² (44%)
- Cassowary Coast Regional: 0.085 km² (97%)
A Call for Climate-Resilient Aquaculture Planning
Lead researcher Marina Christofidis, a Ph.D. candidate at Griffith’s Australian Rivers Institute, emphasized the urgent need for climate-resilient planning:
“Aquaculture is vital for food and livelihood security, but it’s highly vulnerable to sea level rise. Climate risks must be integrated into development strategies.”
The study recommends adaptable aquaculture planning and the use of nature-based solutions to safeguard coastal farms. Examples include:
- Mangrove buffers
- Green seawalls
- Artificial reefs
- Protective fencing and netting
These strategies aim to protect aquaculture infrastructure and support sustainable seafood production in the face of accelerating climate change.
📘 Reference:
Christofidis, M. et al. (2025). One-third of Australia’s coastal terrestrial aquaculture at risk from sea level rise. Aquaculture Science and Management. [DOI: 10.1186/s44365-025-00009-3]
🔗 Provided by: Griffith University