Iceland’s fishing fleet landed just 102,000 tonnes in September 2026 — down 23% on the same month last year. The fall was driven almost entirely by pelagic species, which dropped 30%, while the demersal fleet — the cod, haddock and saithe boats that form the backbone of Iceland’s fishery — barely moved, slipping just 1%. The new figures, published by Statistics Iceland on 15 October 2026 and reported by The Fishing Daily on 19 October 2026, confirm that the weakness is not a one-month blip: over the twelve months to September 2026, total landings fell 4% to 997,000 tonnes, with every major species group down.
For a country where fishing still punches far above its weight in exports and coastal employment, a 23% monthly drop sounds alarming. The data tell a more nuanced story: September 2025 was an exceptionally strong month to compare against, the groundfish core held steady, and the pelagic swing follows the seasonal, shoal-driven pattern that makes Iceland’s monthly numbers famously volatile. Here is what the numbers actually say — and what to watch next.
September 2026 at a Glance
| Measure | September 2026 | Change vs September 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Total catch | 102,000 tonnes | −23% |
| Pelagic catch | Nearly 70,000 tonnes | −30% |
| Demersal catch | Almost 31,000 tonnes | −1% |
| 12-month total (Oct 2025 – Sep 2026) | 997,000 tonnes | −4% |
| 12-month pelagic | — | −5% |
| 12-month demersal | — | −4% |
| 12-month flatfish | — | −8% (largest proportional fall) |
Two facts jump out. First, pelagic fish accounted for nearly 70,000 of the 102,000 tonnes landed in September — roughly two-thirds of the month’s catch — so a 30% pelagic drop alone explains almost the whole headline decline. Second, demersal landings of almost 31,000 tonnes were essentially flat, down just 1% year on year. In other words, the boats chasing cod and other bottom fish had a normal month; the boats chasing shoaling pelagic species did not.
Why the Comparison Month Matters: September 2025 Was a Bumper Month
A year-on-year percentage is only as meaningful as the month it is measured against — and September 2025 was a bumper month. Iceland landed 131,000 tonnes that month, up 34% on September 2024, powered by a pelagic surge: pelagic landings hit 98,304 tonnes, up 65%, including 35,607 tonnes of blue whiting (against just 58 tonnes the year before), 58,331 tonnes of herring (up 1%) and 4,366 tonnes of mackerel (up 174%). Demersal landings that month actually fell 14% to 30,815 tonnes, with cod down 14% to 17,591 tonnes, haddock down 16% and redfish down 29%.
That base effect cuts both ways for reading September 2026. The 23% headline fall looks dramatic partly because it is measured against one of the strongest Septembers in recent years. But the twelve-month figure strips out that noise — and it still points down 4%. September 2026 is therefore best read as a weak month inside a mildly declining year, not as a collapse and not as a statistical illusion either.
The Twelve-Month Picture: Down Across the Board
Over the twelve months from October 2025 to September 2026, Iceland landed 997,000 tonnes, 4% less than the preceding twelve-month period. Pelagic catches fell 5% and demersal catches fell 4% over the same span, while flatfish recorded the largest proportional reduction, down 8%. Statistics Iceland’s reporting notes that decreases across all major species groups contributed to the overall reduction — there was no single culprit species.
For context, the previous twelve-month window had looked much healthier: the October 2024 to September 2025 total was 1,038,824 tonnes, up 4% on the year before, with pelagic up 8% to 593,577 tonnes on a 45% lift in mackerel (129,621 tonnes) and blue whiting of 309,855 tonnes. The calendar year 2025 as a whole closed at 1,032,000 tonnes, up 4% on 2024, with pelagic up 8%, demersal down 1% and flatfish down 17% — a year that ended weakly, with December 2025 landings of just over 53,000 tonnes, down 13% (demersal −13%, pelagic −12%, flatfish −30%). The 2026 monthly trend has stayed soft since: January 2026 landings were 74,945 tonnes, down 5% on January 2025, and August 2026 came in at 71,000 tonnes. September’s 102,000 tonnes is a seasonal step up from August, but well below the 131,000 tonnes of September 2025.
What Held Up: The Demersal Core
If there is a reassuring thread in the data, it is the demersal fleet. Demersal species — cod, haddock, saithe, redfish and others caught near the seabed — are Iceland’s highest-value catch, and their landings barely moved in September (−1%). That steadiness matters because demersal fish dominate the value side of the ledger: in the last completed fishing year (September 2024 to August 2025), the total catch was valued at 194 billion ISK, up 14% on the previous fishing year, of which demersal fish accounted for nearly 147 billion ISK (up 18%) against just over 35 billion ISK for pelagic fish (up 4%). Volume and value, in Iceland, are very different stories — and the high-value segment is the one holding up.
Note the timing gap in the value data: Statistics Iceland’s catch-value figures in this release run only through April 2026, so no September 2026 value figure is claimed here. Monthly volume figures are also flagged by Statistics Iceland as preliminary when first published, and are revised as landing records are finalised.
Separate but Related: Capelin Advice Slashed 70%
Days before the September catch release, Iceland’s Marine and Freshwater Research Institute and the Greenland Institute of Natural Resources cut their capelin fishing advice for the 2026/27 season to 105,773 tonnes — a 70% cut from the initial advice of 358,044 tonnes issued after the autumn 2025 juvenile survey. The revised advice, published 12 October 2026, follows acoustic surveys from 28 August to 26 September 2026 that came in considerably below expectations, estimating a fishable stock of about 560,000 tonnes (565,057 tonnes in the detailed assessment).
Applying the agreed harvest rule and accounting for predation gave an estimated catch of 158,660 tonnes, of which two-thirds — 105,773 tonnes — forms the intermediate advice. The researchers were candid about the uncertainty: severe weather and sea ice stopped the survey vessels (Tarajoq and Árni Friðriksson) covering the northern extent of the stock’s distribution, and because mature capelin were present in that unsurveyed northern area, the stock is likely to have been underestimated — by an unknown amount. The survey also estimated 65.9 billion juvenile capelin, pointing to initial 2027/28 advice of 83,283 tonnes. The spawning stock is forecast at 278,036 tonnes in March 2027 under the revised advice, above the precautionary biomass limit of 114,000 tonnes. Crucially, this advice is intermediate, not final: it will be updated after further acoustic surveys in January and February 2027, and it does not change the September 2026 catch figures — it governs the season ahead.
Meanwhile, the herring season has been winding down: in late October 2026, the vessel Beitir NK landed 1,260 tonnes of herring at Neskaupstaður (60% Norwegian-Icelandic herring, 40% Icelandic summer-spawning herring), and processor VSV reported its Norwegian-Icelandic herring season nearing completion with about 11,000 tonnes landed and roughly 1,200 tonnes of company quota remaining.
How to Read Iceland’s Fisheries Numbers
- Pelagic vs demersal: Pelagic species (herring, mackerel, blue whiting, capelin) live in mid-water shoals and their landings swing sharply with season, migration and survey timing. Demersal species (cod, haddock, saithe) live near the seabed and move much more slowly. A pelagic swing rarely means the whole fishery is in trouble.
- Fishing year vs calendar year: Iceland’s fishing year runs September to August, which is why value figures are quoted for “September 2024 to August 2025” rather than a calendar year. Always check which year a figure refers to before comparing.
- Preliminary means preliminary: Statistics Iceland’s monthly catch releases are built from landing records and are revised. Treat the latest month as a strong signal, not a final verdict.
- Volume is not value: A tonne of cod is worth far more than a tonne of capelin. Iceland’s demersal catch is smaller in tonnes but dominates in kroner — which is why a flat demersal month cushions a pelagic fall.
- Advice is not quota: The capelin figure above is scientific advice. Final catch limits follow later decisions and, for 2026/27, further winter surveys.
What to Watch Next
Three dates frame the next chapter. The October 2026 catch release, due in mid-November, will show whether September’s pelagic weakness extended into the autumn herring and mackerel season. The winter capelin surveys in January and February 2027 will decide the final 2026/27 capelin advice — and whether the 70% cut was precautionary or prescient. And the close of the herring season will set the tone for pelagic processing volumes into winter. If demersal landings stay near flat while pelagic volumes recover toward their 2025 levels, the twelve-month decline could narrow quickly; if both stay soft, Iceland will close the year with its second consecutive annual volume decline in the rolling twelve-month measure.
Why This Matters Beyond Iceland
Iceland is one of the world’s most closely watched fisheries: its cod is a benchmark whitefish for European markets, its pelagic species feed the fishmeal and fish-oil chain, and its quota-managed, survey-driven system is often held up as a model of science-based management. A month in which the science-based system reports a 23% volume fall — driven by the volatile pelagic sector while the high-value demersal core holds steady — is a useful reminder that fisheries statistics reward patience: single months mislead, twelve-month trends inform, and value figures, when they arrive, may tell a kinder story than volumes alone.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Iceland’s catch collapsing?
No. The twelve-month total is 997,000 tonnes, down 4% — a mild decline, not a collapse. The 23% figure is a single month measured against an exceptionally strong September 2025.
What caused the September fall?
Pelagic landings fell 30% to nearly 70,000 tonnes. The sources do not attribute the fall to a single cause, and this post does not invent one: September 2025’s bumper pelagic month (98,304 tonnes) makes the year-on-year comparison unusually tough.
Does the 70% capelin advice cut explain September’s numbers?
No. The capelin advice governs the 2026/27 season ahead and was published 12 October 2026, after September ended. It is a forward-looking scientific recommendation, not a catch result.
Where do these figures come from?
Statistics Iceland’s monthly fish-catch releases, as reported by The Fishing Daily on 19 October 2026 (September 2026 figures) and 13 October 2026 (capelin advice), with historical context from Statistics Iceland’s earlier monthly releases. Official links are below.
Official Sources and Further Reading
- Statistics Iceland — Fisheries statistics (monthly catch releases, including “Total catch in September was 102 thousand tonnes”, 15 October 2026)
- The Fishing Daily — Icelandic Catch Volumes Fall 23% in September 2026 (19 October 2026)
- The Fishing Daily — Icelandic Capelin Fishing Advice Cut By 70% After Autumn Survey (13 October 2026)
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Fact-check note: Every figure in this post was verified on 31 October 2026 against Statistics Iceland releases via The Fishing Daily (19 October 2026 for September 2026; 13 October 2026 for capelin advice) and Statistics Iceland’s earlier monthly releases. Where sources give rounded figures (“nearly 70,000 tonnes”, “almost 31,000 tonnes”), this post keeps the same rounding. No September 2026 catch-value figure is claimed, because the value series in this release runs only through April 2026. No cause is claimed for the pelagic fall beyond the reported figures and the September 2025 base effect. The images are illustrations, not photographs of the events described.