Six coastal states have done what they failed to do last year: agree a single, science-based catch limit for one of the North-East Atlantic’s most valuable fish. After talks in London from 20 to 22 October 2026, Norway, the European Union, the Faroe Islands, Greenland, Iceland and the United Kingdom set the total allowable catch (TAC) for North-East Atlantic mackerel at 352,938 tonnes for 2027 — exactly in line with the advice of the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES).
That headline number is only half the story. The same negotiating round also locked in 2027 totals for blue whiting and Atlanto-Scandian (Norwegian spring-spawning) herring, both in line with ICES advice. But in all three fisheries, the far harder question — how the total is divided between nations — is still unresolved. Until that share deal is struck, a TAC on paper does not guarantee that what is actually caught stays within the science.
The images in this post are illustrations of a mackerel shoal, not photographs of the negotiations or of a specific catch.
2027 TACs agreed: the numbers at a glance
| Stock | 2027 TAC agreed | Change vs 2026 | Where and when agreed |
|---|---|---|---|
| North-East Atlantic mackerel | 352,938 tonnes | More than double the 2026 ICES advice of 174,357 tonnes (+102%); trade press describes it as almost 54,000 tonnes above the quota figure set for 2026 | London, 20–22 October 2026 |
| Blue whiting | 1,064,191 tonnes | About 25% above the 2026 limit of 851,344 tonnes | Announced by the Norwegian government, 15 October 2026; consultations 13–15 October |
| Atlanto-Scandian / Norwegian spring-spawning herring | 588,004 tonnes | About 10% above the 533,914 tonnes agreed for 2026 | Announced by the Norwegian government, 15 October 2026; consultations 13–15 October |
Read the mackerel row carefully, because two different comparisons are doing the rounds and both are true. Against the scientific advice for 2026 (174,357 tonnes), the 2027 figure is a doubling — a 102% jump. Against the quota the states actually set for 2026 (close to 300,000 tonnes, agreed by only some states), the increase is roughly 54,000 tonnes. The gap between those two baselines is itself the story of this fishery: for 2026, the coastal states never reached a shared agreement, and actual catches in 2026 are expected to reach around 400,000 tonnes — far above the science. The 2027 deal is progress precisely because, this time, all six mackerel coastal states signed the same total.
Who agreed — and who did not
For mackerel, the six parties to the agreement are Norway, the EU, the Faroe Islands, Greenland, Iceland and the United Kingdom. Russia, which has in the past set its own mackerel quota unilaterally — trade reporting notes a 67,548-tonne Russian quota decision this summer that drew action from other coastal states — did not take part in this agreement.
The line-ups differ slightly by stock, which is normal in these talks because each stock’s coastal-state group reflects where the fish actually occur:
- Blue whiting: Norway, the EU, the UK, the Faroe Islands and Iceland.
- Herring (Norwegian spring-spawning): Norway, Russia, the UK, the Faroe Islands and Iceland, as reported by The Fishing Daily and summarised by Ocean and Coastal Futures.
- Mackerel: Norway, the EU, the Faroe Islands, Greenland, Iceland and the UK.
Norway’s Minister of Fisheries and the Oceans, Marianne Sivertsen Næss, welcomed the mackerel outcome but was careful not to declare the stock recovered. “We have been concerned about the mackerel stock. Therefore, it is gratifying to see that things are now moving in a positive direction,” she said, linking the improvement to a sharp reduction in catches during 2026 and stronger-than-expected recruitment. She added: “However, the situation is still serious, so it is important that the stock is monitored closely. This is important to ensure that the stock reaches a more sustainable level and thereby ensure greater stability and increased profitability in the fishery.”
Her stated end-goal goes further than a one-year total: “Our main goal remains to put in place a comprehensive agreement that includes all coastal states. This requires that all parties show both the will and the ability to find solutions.”
Why industry and conservationists both welcomed it — with a warning
The Scottish Pelagic Fishermen’s Association (SPFA) welcomed all three TAC agreements. Its chief executive, Ian Gatt, said: “We are delighted that the Coastal States have signed the TAC agreements for all three fisheries in line with the ICES advice, which is great progress compared to the same period last year.”
Daniel Steadman of The Pew Charitable Trusts struck a similar but sterner note on mackerel: “Mackerel is an iconic species, but it is in trouble. Setting a catch limit in line with scientific advice is an important short-term decision, and now the hard work to rebuild its population must begin.” He warned that the states “must ensure they adhere to this new limit and rebuild this species, not only for the health of the population, but so that there are enough mackerel in the water to feed ocean predators, protect marine ecosystems, and support a viable fishing industry.”
Pew also pointed to the next forum: the North-East Atlantic Fisheries Commission (NEAFC) meeting in November 2026, where parties will seek agreement on mackerel catch limits for international waters. A coastal-state TAC does not by itself settle what happens on the high seas.
The catch: a total without shares is not yet a cap
This is the part of the deal that matters most, and the part most headlines skip. The October agreements cover total catches only. The coastal states have committed to keep working towards comprehensive arrangements for dividing each stock between them, but none is yet in place for mackerel.
As Ocean and Coastal Futures puts it: agreeing a total in line with the science is an important step, but without agreed shares each party sets its own quota, and a TAC agreement on its own cannot guarantee that those national quotas will add up to no more than the advised total. That is exactly what happened in 2026, when the absence of a shared deal left catches running far above advice.
For mackerel, the share talks are scheduled for early December 2026, according to the SPFA. FiskerForum notes the pattern bluntly: in previous years the coastal states have been quick to settle on a suitable TAC figure but have consistently failed to agree how it should be divided. Gatt, however, reported “a more positive atmosphere and a clear willingness among Coastal States to reach an agreement” after a meeting of the North East Atlantic Pelagic Industry Group — representatives from the EU, Faroe Islands, Iceland, Norway and the UK — held on the fringes of the London talks.
One concrete illustration of the shares gap comes from blue whiting and herring, where some national figures are already emerging: the Faroese blue whiting quota will be just under 380,000 tonnes (about 75,000 tonnes more than this year) and its herring quota just under 60,000 tonnes, while Norway’s final national quotas will be set once regulations are adopted and quota swaps and completed fishing are accounted for. Those are national allocations emerging around the agreed totals — not yet a comprehensive sharing deal.
What happens next: dates to watch
| When | What to watch | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| November 2026 | NEAFC meeting on mackerel limits for international waters | Tests whether the coastal-state total holds beyond national waters |
| Early December 2026 | Coastal-state talks on mackerel quota shares | Decides whether national quotas sum to 352,938 tonnes or overshoot it again |
| 2027 fishing year | Actual catches vs the agreed TACs | The real test: 2026 catches ran to ~400,000 tonnes against 174,357 tonnes of advice |
| Through 2027 | Stock monitoring, as stressed by Norway’s fisheries minister | Whether stronger recruitment holds or the stock slips back under pressure |
Retailers and suppliers are watching the same test. Trade reporting notes that a growing number have stopped or suspended sourcing of North-East Atlantic mackerel after years of overfishing and quotas set above ICES advice — and that the amount actually caught could breach the TAC, and with it the advice, if the states do not agree shares, as happened this year. A science-based total is a necessary condition for restoring buyer confidence; it is not yet sufficient.
What this means for Indian readers
These TACs do not apply to Indian waters, and they do not change any Indian quota. The North-East Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus) is a different stock from the Indian mackerel (Rastrelliger kanagurta) that topped India’s marine landings in 2024 at 2.63 lakh tonnes, according to CMFRI data reported by PIB. Do not read a North Atlantic quota as an Indian price or supply signal.
The relevance for India is comparative and practical:
- Science-based totals work only with shares. India’s own marine fisheries debates — seasonal bans, state-wise effort controls, and the national plan for small-scale fisheries — face the same arithmetic: a total that is not divided and enforced is not a limit.
- Overcatch has market consequences. When North Atlantic mackerel stayed above advice, buyers walked away. Sustainability certification and buyer confidence are now part of the price of market access, including for Indian seafood exporters competing in the same global markets.
- Recovery is slow and monitored. Even a doubling of the advised catch comes with a ministerial warning that the stock “is still serious” and must be monitored closely. A higher TAC is not the same as a recovered stock.
How to follow this story without getting misled
- Distinguish advice from agreement from allocation. ICES advises; coastal states agree a total; states then allocate shares. A story that reports only one of the three is incomplete.
- Check the baseline of any percentage. “Doubled” here means doubled against 2026 advice (174,357 tonnes). Against last year’s actual quota it is roughly 54,000 tonnes higher. Both figures are reported; they answer different questions.
- Watch December, not just October. If the early-December share talks fail, the October agreement could still be overshot in practice — as in 2026.
- Separate the Baltic deal from this one. The EU’s separate 2027 Baltic Sea agreement (central Baltic herring up 71%, sprat up 44%, cod kept to by-catch only) covers different stocks and waters and was already reported separately. Do not add Baltic tonnes to North Atlantic tonnes.
Frequently asked questions
Is 352,938 tonnes the final mackerel catch for 2027?
No — it is the agreed total allowable catch. Final catches depend on the quota shares still to be negotiated and on compliance, including in international waters.
Does the deal mean mackerel has recovered?
No. Norway’s fisheries minister explicitly said the situation “is still serious” and the stock must be monitored closely, even though recruitment looks stronger.
Why did the TAC more than double if the stock is still in trouble?
Because the 2026 advice (174,357 tonnes) was set very low after a period of concern, and 2026 catches fell sharply while recruitment came in stronger than expected. The 2027 advice — and now the agreed TAC — reflects that updated assessment, not a claim that the stock is fully rebuilt.
What about blue whiting and herring?
Both also got science-based 2027 totals (1,064,191 tonnes and 588,004 tonnes respectively), announced on 15 October. They share the same unresolved shares problem as mackerel.
Does this affect Indian mackerel prices?
Not directly. Indian mackerel is a different species and stock, fished in different waters under different management. Any market effect would be indirect, through global pelagic supply and buyer sentiment — and no such price claim is made here.
Related reads on Fisheries India
- ICES 2027 Advice: 352,938 Tonnes Mackerel, Norway Pout Zero — the scientific advice this agreement follows, including the zero-catch advice for Norway pout.
- EU Agrees 71% Baltic Herring Quota Jump — Cod Banned — the separate Baltic Sea 2027 deal; do not confuse its stocks with the North Atlantic ones here.
- India’s Seafood Exports Hit ₹73,890 Crore Record — why global buyer confidence and sustainability signals matter for Indian exporters.
- US Launches $5B+ Seafood Plan: ‘U.S.-Caught’ Label! — another October 2026 example of fisheries policy being driven by competitiveness and origin labelling.
Sources (verified 30 October 2026)
- The Fishing Daily, 22 October 2026 (updated 23 October): “Coastal States Agree Science-Based Atlantic Mackerel Catch Limit” — thefishingdaily.com
- FiskerForum, 27 October 2026: “Coastal states agree 2027 mackerel TAC” — fiskerforum.com
- Ocean and Coastal Futures, 20 October 2026: “Coastal states set 2027 blue whiting and herring catches in line with science” — ocfonline.co.uk
- Scottish Pelagic Fishermen’s Association, 26 October 2026: “Scottish pelagic fishermen welcome outcome of Coastal States TAC talks” — spsg.co.uk
- The Grocer, 26 October 2026 (updated 28 October): “Coastal states agree total agreeable catch for mackerel” — thegrocer.co.uk
- Daily Northern, 23 October 2026: “Coastal states agree mackerel quota for next year” — dailynorthern.com
Note on framing: this post reports the October 2026 coastal-state agreements as totals agreed in line with ICES advice. It does not present them as final allocated quotas, and it does not claim the stocks have recovered. Where trade reporting differs on a comparison baseline, both baselines are shown.