Vietnam has quietly put together one of the strongest fisheries scorecards of 2026 so far. In the first nine months of the year, the country’s fisheries output is estimated at nearly 7.9 million tonnes, up 3.9% year-on-year, while seafood exports have already crossed $9.1 billion. The sector is now chasing a full-year export target of $12 billion — but the final quarter will decide whether that target is reached or just missed.
The numbers, reported by Vietnam News Agency (VNA) and based on figures from Vietnam’s Ministry of Agriculture and Environment (MAE) and the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), tell a story that matters well beyond Vietnam. For Indian fish farmers, shrimp growers, exporters and fisheries students, Vietnam is the benchmark competitor — and the market signals in its nine-month data are a useful early warning for the months ahead.
Vietnam’s nine-month fisheries scorecard
Production kept growing through September, according to the MAE. Brackish-water shrimp farms entered their peak harvest season, pangasius (tra fish) production stayed stable, and favourable marine fishing conditions towards the end of the southern fishing season helped keep raw material flowing for domestic consumption and export processing.
| Indicator (January–September 2026) | Figure | Change vs same period 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Total fisheries output (estimated) | Nearly 7.9 million tonnes | +3.9% |
| Fish output | 5.41 million tonnes | +2.8% |
| Shrimp output | Nearly 1.38 million tonnes | +7.1% |
| Other aquatic products | 1.1 million tonnes | +5.8% |
| Total seafood exports | $9.103 billion | +11.4% |
| September exports alone | $1.135 billion | — |
| Full-year export target | $12 billion | Target, not yet achieved |
Aquaculture remains the main growth driver, the MAE said, supported by technology that has improved productivity, quality and efficiency. In the Mekong Delta, shrimp–rice and shrimp–mangrove farming models continued to deliver results, while high-tech intensive farming expanded. Stable pangasius production and growth in tilapia and marine aquaculture also helped diversify supplies.
Shrimp: $3.75 billion, but momentum is cooling
Shrimp is still Vietnam’s biggest foreign-exchange earner in fisheries. VASEP reports shrimp exports of $3.75 billion in the first nine months of 2026, up 11% year-on-year and about 41% of total seafood export revenue. But the headline hides a slowdown: growth eased from 14% in the first half of the year to 11% over nine months, and September growth slowed further as supply competition intensified and market absorption weakened.
As harvesting peaked in several localities, whiteleg shrimp prices fell in parts of the Mekong Delta — a reminder that a production boom can squeeze farm-gate prices if harvesting, purchasing and processing are not coordinated. That lesson applies directly to Indian shrimp farmers too: volume without a marketing plan is not the same as income.
| Shrimp export market (Jan–Sep 2026) | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| China | Nearly $1.2 billion (33% of shrimp exports) | +37% |
| China including Hong Kong (China) | $1.3 billion | +35% |
| Japan | $440.9 million | +6.4% |
| United States | $498 million | −15% (September alone −32%) |
| European Union | $406.4 million | −4.9% (September alone −12.5%) |
| Australia | $211.9 million | +18.5% |
| Canada | $130.5 million | +11% |
| CPTPP markets combined | Over $1 billion | +10.2% |
China is the clear bright spot. Demand for lobster, particularly green lobster, in the Chinese market also contributed significantly to the results, VOV reported. For total seafood exports (not just shrimp), China and Hong Kong together reached $2.3 billion in nine months — about a quarter of Vietnam’s total seafood exports and about 62% of the increase in total export value compared with the same period last year.
The weak spots are the traditional Western markets. US shrimp shipments fell 15% over nine months, with September alone plunging 32%. VOV reports that shrimp is the commodity most affected by US tariffs, with an extra 12.5% tariff under Section 301 on top of anti-dumping and countervailing duties for some Vietnamese exporters. EU shipments fell 4.9%. Growth in China and CPTPP markets is offsetting those declines for now — but not fully.
Pangasius: the quiet $1.74 billion performer
Pangasius (tra fish) exports totalled $1.74 billion in the first nine months, up 10.7%, according to VASEP. Tighter supplies of some wild-caught whitefish have created opportunities for Vietnamese pangasius, whose competitive prices and stable supply are attracting greater interest in several markets. VASEP also noted Kyokuyo’s continued introduction of pangasius through professional distribution channels in Japan, even though that market remains relatively small.
In key Mekong Delta provinces, raw pangasius prices remained favourable, supported by strong demand from processing plants preparing for the year-end export peak. The MAE forecast that raw shrimp and pangasius prices could recover in the fourth quarter as supplies tighten and businesses step up purchases ahead of the year-end consumption season. That is a forecast, not a guarantee — and it depends on demand holding up.
Can Vietnam reach $12 billion?
Phung Duc Tien, Chairman of the Vietnam Fisheries Society, said the $12 billion export target remains achievable given solid output growth and generally favourable market conditions. But he added an important qualification: any fourth-quarter slowdown would not necessarily reflect raw material shortages, but also impacts on economic efficiency amid rising material and fuel costs.
VASEP itself expects exports could lose momentum in the fourth quarter after accelerating in the third, because many orders for year-end consumption have already been delivered early. China and ASEAN markets are expected to provide support, but VASEP warns they might not fully offset weaker demand in the US, EU and Japan.
For shrimp alone, VASEP noted that maintaining monthly exports of $470–480 million in the final quarter would bring the full-year shrimp export value to between $5.1 billion and $5.2 billion. That is VASEP’s arithmetic for the target, not a confirmed outcome — readers should treat it as a scenario to watch, not a done deal.
Other markets are helping: ASEAN seafood exports reached $620 million in nine months, up 21%, and exports to South Korea reached $652 million, up 6.1%. Diversification, not dependence on any single buyer, is what is keeping Vietnam’s growth story alive.
What this means for Indian fish farmers and students
Vietnam’s data is not just a foreign news item. It is a live case study in how a fisheries economy grows — and where it gets squeezed. Five takeaways stand out:
- Diversify your markets. Vietnam’s China and CPTPP growth is cushioning its US and EU declines. A farmer or exporter tied to one buyer is exposed to one policy change.
- Watch the farm-gate price, not just the harvest. Vietnam’s shrimp output rose 7.1%, yet whiteleg prices fell in parts of the Mekong Delta at peak harvest. Coordinated harvesting and processing matter as much as production.
- Integrated models pay. Shrimp–rice and shrimp–mangrove systems in the Mekong Delta kept delivering results alongside high-tech intensive farming. Low-input, multi-output systems deserve as much attention as intensive monoculture.
- Value addition beats raw volume. Pangasius gained ground because of competitive prices and stable supply when wild whitefish tightened — reliability is a selling point in itself.
- Costs are the new competition. Rising input and fuel costs, not just rival producers, are squeezing margins. Cost control, disease control and product quality are now core competitiveness tools, as VASEP and the MAE both stress.
How to track Vietnam’s final-quarter numbers
If you want to follow whether the $12 billion target is met, watch for these markers in the months ahead:
- VASEP’s monthly export releases — especially shrimp exports by market, and whether the $470–480 million monthly shrimp pace is held.
- MAE production updates — whether fourth-quarter output stays on the growth path or tightens as forecast.
- China and ASEAN demand — whether those markets keep offsetting US and EU weakness.
- Farm-gate shrimp and pangasius prices in the Mekong Delta — the earliest signal of whether farmers, not just exporters, are benefiting.
The full-year verdict will come with Vietnam’s December trade data. Until then, the nine-month figures give the clearest picture available: a sector growing in volume, earning more from exports, but facing a tougher, costlier final quarter than the first nine months suggested.
Frequently asked questions
How much fish did Vietnam produce in the first nine months of 2026?
Nearly 7.9 million tonnes, up 3.9% year-on-year, according to Vietnam’s Ministry of Agriculture and Environment as reported by VNA.
How much did Vietnam export in seafood over the same period?
$9.103 billion, up 11.4% year-on-year, with September alone contributing $1.135 billion.
What is Vietnam’s 2026 seafood export target?
$12 billion for the full year. It is a target, not an achieved figure — the fourth quarter will decide it.
Which product earns Vietnam the most from seafood exports?
Shrimp, at $3.75 billion in nine months (about 41% of seafood export revenue), followed by pangasius at $1.74 billion.
Why are Vietnam’s shrimp exports to the US falling?
VASEP-linked reporting points to tariff pressures (including an extra 12.5% Section 301 tariff and duties for some exporters), international competition and raw-material difficulties, with September US shipments down 32% year-on-year.
Sources and further reading
- Vietnam News Agency via VietnamPlus, “Fisheries sector strives for 12 billion USD in exports amid rising costs” (12 October 2026) — MAE production figures and VASEP shrimp/pangasius export figures, verified 27 October 2026.
- VOV, “Shrimp exports hit US$3.7 billion in nine months” (22 October 2026) — VASEP shrimp market breakdown, tariff reporting and full-year shrimp scenario, verified 27 October 2026.
- Vietnam.vn, “Seafood exports exceed $9 billion, with shrimp and pangasius firmly maintaining their leading roles” (October 2026) — total export value $9.103 billion, China/Hong Kong, ASEAN and South Korea market figures, verified 27 October 2026.
- eFeedLink, “Vietnam’s fisheries output rises 3.9% to 7.9 million tonnes in nine months as shrimp exports climb 11%” (15 October 2026) — corroborating summary, verified 27 October 2026.
Note: the images in this post are illustrations of Vietnamese aquaculture and harbour scenes, not photographs of the specific farms or shipments described. All figures are as reported by the sources above; production figures are official estimates, and fourth-quarter figures are forecasts or targets, not confirmed outcomes.
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