After a record-breaking year for salmon, the next chapter of global fish farming looks very different. At the 2026 Responsible Seafood Summit in Bangkok, Rabobank’s senior global seafood specialist Gorjan Nikolik presented the bank’s annual Global Finfish Aquaculture Production Survey and Forecast — and his message was clear: growth is continuing, but it is slowing for salmon, shifting to new species, and concentrating in new places.
“Basically, the forecast is normalization,” Nikolik said of salmon. For fish farmers, feed suppliers, traders and students of aquaculture, the numbers below are the ones shaping investment and production decisions for 2026 and 2027.
Salmon: after the “tsunami,” growth slows sharply
Atlantic salmon was the standout story of 2025, when global production jumped nearly 12 percent after several comparatively weak years. Norway, the biggest producer, grew by 12 percent and Chile by 15 percent — driven largely by biology: better growth, lower mortality, better performance and better climate.
That pace will not continue, Rabobank forecasts:
| Atlantic salmon production growth | Forecast |
|---|---|
| 2025 (actual) | Nearly +12% |
| 2026 | About +3.1% |
| 2027 | About +1.7% |
“We had an absolute tsunami of salmon in 2025,” Nikolik said. The slowdown is a return to normal, not a collapse — but it changes the market balance for producers who expanded on the back of the surge.
Tilapia: crossing 8 million tonnes in 2026
Tilapia production is forecast to increase 2.9 percent in 2026, pushing the industry past another milestone. “We should be crossing the 8 million metric tons in 2026,” Nikolik said. Almost all of it is driven by local markets — this is not a sector very dependent on international trade.
China remains the largest global producer, and even in a mature market, production continues to edge higher. Nikolik noted that China once relied heavily on United States demand, but US exports are now a much lower percentage of its total industry — and growth has continued, “almost unimpacted.”
Pangasius: the fastest mover — and India’s quiet rise
Pangasius is moving faster than salmon or tilapia. Global production is forecast to increase 5.3 percent in 2026 and another 5.9 percent in 2027, bringing the industry close to the 4 million metric ton mark.
Vietnam remains dominant, but India has quietly emerged as a major producer and is forecast to reach roughly 1 million metric tons by 2027. Unlike Vietnam’s export-oriented industry, much of India’s production serves its domestic market.
“We’ve always talked about Vietnam in the past, but silently India has emerged as a major producer,” Nikolik said. “Many people often question: Is India going to become a major seafood-consumer nation? Well, they already are.”
Shrimp: still growing, but only in a few places
Global shrimp production is still expanding, but the pace is slowing — and growth is becoming increasingly concentrated in a handful of markets. The GSA–Rabobank survey forecasts global shrimp supply growth of 2.8 percent in 2026, down from 6.3 percent in 2025, before recovering to 4.7 percent in 2027. Even then, that would remain well below the industry’s 8.2 percent compound annual growth rate from 2014 to 2024.
| Shrimp market | 2026 forecast |
|---|---|
| Global | +2.8% (from +6.3% in 2025) |
| Ecuador | Initially +10.3%; newer data suggest +15 to 16% |
| China | +1% |
| Vietnam | +1.9% |
| Thailand | Less than +1% |
| Indonesia | −5.8% (contraction) |
Ecuador is the clearest exception. Exports through July 2026 were already up 13 percent by volume, on top of an estimated 14.7 percent production increase in 2025, with another 6.9 percent gain forecast for 2027. “I would argue this is the fastest-growing large aquaculture industry of the last two decades,” Nikolik said. “We rarely see something of this scale last this long in the aquaculture industry without major correction.”
Kontali chief analyst Ragnar Nystøyl added a caution on markets: higher supply-chain costs and shifting trade flows mean lower producer prices have not necessarily translated into lower consumer prices — “somebody needs to cover that cost.” He also warned against treating the United States as the measure of global shrimp demand: the US accounts for roughly 10 percent of global vannamei consumption and only 2 to 3 percent of monodon consumption, so most global demand lies elsewhere.
Pockets of growth elsewhere
- Marine finfish: Chinese production is forecast to increase 7.7 percent in 2026, with barramundi highlighted as a species with export potential.
- Atlantic cod: Norway’s farmed Atlantic cod industry is staging a comeback as tighter wild cod supplies in Europe support prices.
- Smaller producers: Malaysia and Myanmar are expanding, while Thailand appears to be reversing a longer period of decline. “Here in Thailand, too, it looked for a long time that the industry was declining. It seems that there’s growth again,” Nikolik said.
What it means for Indian fish farmers
Three takeaways stand out for readers in India. First, pangasius at roughly 1 million tonnes by 2027 confirms India as a major producer — domestic demand, not exports, is the engine. Second, the salmon slowdown shows how fast a boom year can normalize, a warning against over-expansion on one good season. Third, the shrimp story shows concentration risk: when growth depends on one or two countries, everyone else’s margins get squeezed by costs and trade shifts.
Against a backdrop of tariff uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and market volatility, Nikolik’s summary was upbeat about the sector’s breadth: “I would say that I’m really impressed by the resilience of this.” His takeaway: “Overall, I would say pockets of growth and interesting stories across our whole industry.”
Source and note on figures
All forecasts in this article are from Rabobank’s Global Finfish Aquaculture Production Survey and Forecast, presented by Gorjan Nikolik at the 2026 Responsible Seafood Summit in Bangkok and reported by the Global Seafood Alliance’s Responsible Seafood Advocate on 1 October 2026 (author Lisa Jackson). Figures are forecasts and survey estimates, not final production data, and are attributed as such. The featured image is an illustration.
Source: Global Seafood Alliance, “Responsible Seafood Summit: Rabobank provides a mixed outlook for global aquaculture,” 1 October 2026 — https://www.globalseafood.org/advocate/responsible-seafood-summit-rabobank-provides-a-mixed-outlook-for-global-aquaculture/