The International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) has released its catch advice for key Northeast Atlantic stocks for 2027 — and the numbers are big. Northeast Atlantic mackerel gets a recommended catch of 352,938 tonnes, more than double last year’s advice, while blue whiting is set at 1.064 million tonnes and Atlanto-Scandian herring rises 10% to 588,004 tonnes. At the same time, ICES recommends zero catches of Norway pout through October 2027 as the stock hovers at critically low levels.
Mackerel: 352,938 Tonnes for 2027 — Recovery Signs, But Fragile
ICES’ October 2026 advice sets the total allowable catch (TAC) for Northeast Atlantic mackerel at 352,938 metric tonnes for 2027. That is a major jump from the historically low 174,357-tonne limit it recommended in 2025 for the 2026 fishing season. Environmental groups welcomed the improvement but warned the stock remains fragile — the Northeast Atlantic Pelagic Advocacy Group (NAPA) said the stock is only 4.5% above the limit where the risk of collapse increases.
The context is messy: coastal states never reached a shared mackerel agreement for 2026, and actual catches in 2026 are expected to hit around 400,000 tonnes — well above science. Since 2010, combined mackerel quotas have exceeded ICES advice by an average of 39%, and the stock lost its Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) certification in 2019.
Blue Whiting +25%, Herring +10%
Blue whiting received a 2027 TAC recommendation of 1.064 million tonnes, a 25% increase over the 851,344-tonne advice for 2026. But perspective matters: the 2026 advice was itself a 41% cut from the 1.45 million tonnes recommended for 2025, so the stock is still being fished far below levels of a few years ago. Blue whiting’s MSC certification has been suspended since 2020 amid repeated overfishing.
Atlanto-Scandian herring advice rises 10% to 588,004 tonnes for 2027, though ICES tempered the increase by revising some recruitment estimates downward.
2027 ICES Catch Advice at a Glance
| Stock | ICES 2027 Advice | Change | Previous Advice (2026 season) |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE Atlantic mackerel | 352,938 tonnes | More than doubled | 174,357 tonnes |
| Blue whiting | 1.064 million tonnes | +25% | 851,344 tonnes |
| Atlanto-Scandian herring | 588,004 tonnes | +10% | 534,549 tonnes (approx.) |
| Norway pout (Subarea 4 & Div 3.a) | ZERO catch (1 Nov 2026 – 31 Oct 2027) | Unchanged — no catch possible | Zero catch |
| Spurdog (NE Atlantic) | Lower catches for 2027 & 2028 | Down | Cautious TAC at 54.05% of advised level |
Norway Pout: Zero Catch as Spawning Stock Sits Below Critical Limit
The starkest figure in the autumn 2026 advice round: ICES recommends zero catches of Norway pout in the North Sea, Skagerrak and Kattegat from 1 November 2026 to 31 October 2027. The assessment estimates spawning-stock biomass at just 12,692 tonnes at the start of the fourth quarter of 2026 — far below the limit reference point (Blim) of 28,865 tonnes and the precautionary level (Bpa) of 47,281 tonnes.
Even with zero fishing, the median forecast is only 24,185 tonnes of spawning biomass by the fourth quarter of 2027, and the lower-percentile forecast is a worrying 10,480 tonnes. The decline is driven by persistently low recruitment from 2023 to 2026.
Spurdog: Catches Cut for 2027 and 2028
ICES also advises lower catches of spurdog for 2027 and 2028. For 2025, total spurdog catches were estimated at 4,963 tonnes (2,532 tonnes landed, 2,431 tonnes discarded), with bottom trawls accounting for 62%. The UK and EU have been setting the TAC at just 54.05% of the ICES-advised level as a precaution while the stock rebuilds.
Why This Matters Beyond Europe
These autumn figures feed directly into the quota negotiations between the seven coastal states — Norway, Iceland, Faroe Islands, Greenland, the UK, the EU and the Russian Federation — that decide what fleets actually catch in 2027. The MSC notes that over the last decade, combined overfishing of the three pelagic species alone amounts to more than 7.2 million tonnes of fish that should have been left in the sea. NAPA and the MSC are urging all seven states to finally agree a comprehensive quota-sharing deal that keeps combined catches within scientific advice.
Sources
- SeafoodSource, 2 Oct 2026 — “ICES releases advice for Northeast Atlantic pelagics, increasing quotas for mackerel, herring, blue whiting”
- The Fishing Daily, 9 Oct 2026 — “ICES Recommends Zero Catch of Norway Pout for 2027”
- The Fishing Daily, 7 Oct 2026 — “ICES Advises Lower Spurdog Catches for 2027 and 2028”
- NewsIreland.EU, Oct 2026 — “Scientists advise cutting mackerel catch”
- Fish Focus, 12 Oct 2026 — “Princes Welcomes Progress on Mackerel”